Racing
Profiler
Racing
Profiler
Bangor 7.20 Ajman is the selection of the general profile but it's a close thing with Tzora and the selection has to overcome a 7lb late penalty which sometimes destroys chances of general profile selections. A shift upwards of the weights allowing for the higher bottom-weight would still keep Ajman the selection although now Garrulous would have to be considered also given the strength of his trainer. The local profile also favours the hotter stables making Garrulous the most credible threat.
Southwell 7.05
Now that we have finished our successful month-long May study of Novices' Hurdles, it's time to cast a glance at
some other race-types in June. Later this month we'll release a Special E-Book Guide to all Novices' Hurdles just
for our followers.
Like with the Novices' Hurdles, there is a general profile for Handicap Hurdles. Here is what it says:
Short list horses in the weight brackets of top-weight and middle-weight (defined as 10-10 to 11-3 with
exceptions if lowest weight much above 10-0). In the list seek lightly handicapped horses (no more than 3
handicaps raced) and/or distance winners. Look next at the best previous form among those selected. Look
next among those left for trainer with the best record (in-form or course or winner of this race last year).
Sometimes the weight classes have to be adjusted in the general profile if the bottom-weight is higher than 10-0
(may be the case in Bangor today). Unfortunately this adjustment is not consistent. Sometimes it's a straight shift
upwards by the number of pounds higher than 10-0 the bottom weight is carrying. If the low weight is well abive 10-0 this does not
make sense because it pushes middle weights up to 11-7 to 12-0. At those times we have to take the
full range of weights from bottom to top-weight, establish a mid-point and then include all horses carrying
+- 3lbs from that mid-point as being "middle-weight". So the first approach is more practical when the shift is
quite small and the second approach works best when the shift is quite large.
Again, like with the Novices' Hurdles, the general profile sometimes points to winners and sometimes does not
and so we have local profiles for each different course to offer an alternative view. Here is the local profile for
Bangor:
In form and hot stables enjoying a run at the meeting or the course have proven they can beat the usual handicap profilers
who would be dark horses - new to the handicap scene and able to avoid stiff weighting and horses being treated well in
the handicap especially inspite of recent good performances.
Meanwhile we have a ton of research based on past Handicap Hurdles at Southwell. This data still needs to be distilled
or in other words collected together and converted into one single profile. Here it is for the record:
2m4f, 3m2f G/F Nov
:
Watch for top press-rated handicappers especially if concessions like conditional
jockeys. Watch also for horses with little handicap experience but past wins and
good treatment by the handicapper.
2m5f Good Jun
:
In a real (25/1) shocker here, nothing seemed to point to the 5yo 10-8 winner
(no decent press ratings, no 9PFF or TFC, nothing) until I finally looked at
the BHB ratings (handicapper's ratings) and noticed it was the only horse here
with only one hcap run behind it. All else had 3 or more except 4 with none.
It was brought down in that single hcap run LTO. Other than that, nothing.
3m2f G/F May
:
3 horses were press-rated 124 and 3 were 123. All
rated 124 showed including the winner who dominated throughout. Nothing else
beyond that other than the fact that of the 3 highest press-rated, the winner alone
seemed to be running off a slightly lower mark than last time so it's possible to say the handicapper
was easing off him a bit. Also, he was the highested weight-carrier of the 3 with 11-9 - one of 5
horses in the highest weight group (11-8 - 11-12).
3m2f Good Jun
:
Of top press-rated (2 at 117), highest weight (jt top-weight) won.
1. Racing Titbits [23]
2. My racing thoughts [15]
3. The Vic Page [14]
4. SoCheltenham [13]
5. RacingTips4Free [12]
6. Ger Lyons Racing - [9]
7. Nikki Evans Racehor [9]
8. Running Dragon Raci [8]
9. Horse racing forum [7]
10. Eclipse Magazine [6]
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